Dissertation Abstract
Impact and vulnerability of emerging climate change scenario on natural resources in Chennai metropolis,India
Jeganathan, Anushiya 2015
Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation Research, Anna University (India), 207 pp.
Understanding the changes in natural resources in urban sector in response to a changing climate is essential to planning for, and adapting to, future climatic conditions. In order to plan for future conditions and challenges, it is crucial to understand the limitations and uncertainties associated with the characterization of these changes in urban where the natural resources are exploited in unrestricted manner. However, projection of climate change and its sectoral assessment at the city scale is a difficult task and need to be addressed in an integral manner, especially for the coastal cities in developing countries. In this perspective, this study took an initiative to conduct a research with a study area of India’s fourth largest metropolitan city and one of the fast growing urban centres in South Asia viz, Chennai Metropolitan Area.
A wide-range of recommended methodologies was followed to assess the vulnerability irrespective of exposure, sensitivity and adapting ability of the urban system. The work was carried out in four phases viz., climate change analysis, urban system analysis, impacts assessment and vulnerability mapping followed by area specific adaptation strategies. More specifically, the study analyzed present and future climate exposure. The annual and seasonal changes in city climate during the period 1951-2010 were studied using IMD observed data. High resolution A1B scenarios of HadRCM3Q developed with PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) were used for future climate analysis. Spatial changes of land use, greencover, microclimate distribution and demographic characteristics were studied to observe urban sensitivity. The projected future climate scenario data were superimposed on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to find the changes in water balance components like ET, water yield, soil water, groundwater recharge and total flow. Thermal discomfort level in the city under present and future climate scenarios were calculated with Thermo Hygrometric Index. Heat waves under present and future climatic conditions were also considered. As Chennai is a coastal city, coastal inundation of future SLR of 0.55m was calculated using GIS based inundation model.
At last, vulnerability indicators were identified and constructed based on exposure, sensitivity and adapting ability of the system and administrative zone wise vulnerability mapping was done in GIS to locate high vulnerable areas. Vulnerability assessment portrayed the city’s current and future vulnerability based on its exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. It indicated the poignant tendency of increasing over all vulnerability under future climate change scenario. This assessment disclosed the influence of exposure and sensitivity with total vulnerability and the need to enhance the adaptive capacity of CMA. Though considerable future inundation in CMA due to sea level rise was explored in this study, the other impacts such as heat waves, thermal comfort level, changes in water balance components had significant march over the inundation influence to total vulnerability. The study also provided zone wise spatial information, which would help stakeholders to take further actions towards better management of natural resources to increase city’s adaptive capacity.
A wide-range of recommended methodologies was followed to assess the vulnerability irrespective of exposure, sensitivity and adapting ability of the urban system. The work was carried out in four phases viz., climate change analysis, urban system analysis, impacts assessment and vulnerability mapping followed by area specific adaptation strategies. More specifically, the study analyzed present and future climate exposure. The annual and seasonal changes in city climate during the period 1951-2010 were studied using IMD observed data. High resolution A1B scenarios of HadRCM3Q developed with PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) were used for future climate analysis. Spatial changes of land use, greencover, microclimate distribution and demographic characteristics were studied to observe urban sensitivity. The projected future climate scenario data were superimposed on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to find the changes in water balance components like ET, water yield, soil water, groundwater recharge and total flow. Thermal discomfort level in the city under present and future climate scenarios were calculated with Thermo Hygrometric Index. Heat waves under present and future climatic conditions were also considered. As Chennai is a coastal city, coastal inundation of future SLR of 0.55m was calculated using GIS based inundation model.
At last, vulnerability indicators were identified and constructed based on exposure, sensitivity and adapting ability of the system and administrative zone wise vulnerability mapping was done in GIS to locate high vulnerable areas. Vulnerability assessment portrayed the city’s current and future vulnerability based on its exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. It indicated the poignant tendency of increasing over all vulnerability under future climate change scenario. This assessment disclosed the influence of exposure and sensitivity with total vulnerability and the need to enhance the adaptive capacity of CMA. Though considerable future inundation in CMA due to sea level rise was explored in this study, the other impacts such as heat waves, thermal comfort level, changes in water balance components had significant march over the inundation influence to total vulnerability. The study also provided zone wise spatial information, which would help stakeholders to take further actions towards better management of natural resources to increase city’s adaptive capacity.